Reflation (as we define it) has room to run

Reflation (as we define it) has room to run

The phrase “reflation trade” gets bandied about even though it is poorly defined, meaning different things to different people. Right now, “reflation” is being used to refer to everything from inflation to economic expansion to U.S. President...
What the bond markets tell us about reflation

What the bond markets tell us about reflation

Global fixed income markets are flashing caution on “reflation trades” predicated on an expansionary economic environment. Positions that have recently come undone include betting on steepening yield curves and inflation expectations (inflation-linked over...
Is the reflation trade over?

Is the reflation trade over?

“Trump trades” have run out of steam lately, amid growing market skepticism about the likelihood of significant near-term U.S. tax reform and infrastructure spending. Yet we believe the bigger-picture reflation trade has room to run. This week’s...
Hello higher rates, but not goodbye reflation

Hello higher rates, but not goodbye reflation

The Federal Reserve has engineered a turnaround in March rate rise expectations without significantly disturbing markets. This is no easy feat – a quickening pace of rate normalization in the past has often led to spikes in volatility. In contrast, Treasury...